Florida’s coastal shoreline-change figures vary sharply by county. The NOAA Florida shoreline-change atlas reports a weighted average total shoreline change rate of 0.6 ft/yr across Florida’s coastal counties, with a weighted average total shoreline-change standard deviation of 68.4 ft. County results range from a rate of -2.4 ft/yr in Gulf County to 3.6 ft/yr in Duval County.
Contents
- Statewide figures
- Northeast Florida
- East-central and southeast Florida
- The Florida Panhandle
- West-central Florida
- Southwest Florida
- How to read the county figures
Statewide figures
The statewide weighted average is a useful reference point, but it does not describe every beach or every shoreline segment. In the NOAA Florida shoreline-change atlas, the weighted average total shoreline change rate across Florida’s coastal counties is 0.6 ft/yr. The corresponding weighted average total shoreline-change standard deviation is 68.4 ft. These are atlas-level summaries rather than a forecast for a particular property, beach, or community.
The county figures below use the atlas’s total shoreline change rate and total shoreline-change standard deviation. A positive rate and a negative rate should be read as different directions of measured shoreline change in the atlas data; the figures do not by themselves explain why a county’s shoreline changed or predict what will happen next.
| Reference | Total shoreline change rate | Total shoreline-change standard deviation |
|---|---|---|
| Florida coastal counties, weighted average | 0.6 ft/yr | 68.4 ft |
| Highest listed county rate: Duval | 3.6 ft/yr | 146.0 ft |
| Lowest listed county rate: Gulf | -2.4 ft/yr | 66.4 ft |
Source for all figures in this article: NOAA Florida shoreline-change atlas.
Northeast Florida
The northeast coast includes some of the largest positive rates in the county list. Duval County’s total shoreline change rate is 3.6 ft/yr, and its total shoreline-change standard deviation is 146.0 ft. Nassau County’s rate is 2.0 ft/yr, with a standard deviation of 108.8 ft. St. Johns County records a total shoreline change rate of 2.6 ft/yr and a standard deviation of 94.7 ft.
These three counties illustrate why a single statewide average can conceal substantial local differences. Their listed rates are all above the statewide weighted average of 0.6 ft/yr, while their standard deviations are also higher than the statewide weighted average of 68.4 ft. Duval has the largest standard deviation among the county figures provided, at 146.0 ft.
Farther south along the Atlantic coast, Flagler County’s total shoreline change rate is 0.2 ft/yr and its standard deviation is 26.3 ft. Volusia County’s rate is 1.2 ft/yr, with a standard deviation of 41.6 ft. Brevard County reports 1.3 ft/yr and 46.3 ft, respectively. Indian River County reports 0.7 ft/yr and 30.0 ft.
| Northeast and east-central county | Rate | Standard deviation |
|---|---|---|
| Nassau | 2.0 ft/yr | 108.8 ft |
| Duval | 3.6 ft/yr | 146.0 ft |
| St. Johns | 2.6 ft/yr | 94.7 ft |
| Flagler | 0.2 ft/yr | 26.3 ft |
| Volusia | 1.2 ft/yr | 41.6 ft |
| Brevard | 1.3 ft/yr | 46.3 ft |
| Indian River | 0.7 ft/yr | 30.0 ft |
All county values in this section are from the NOAA Florida shoreline-change atlas.
East-central and southeast Florida
The next group of Atlantic counties shows both positive and negative rates. St. Lucie County’s total shoreline change rate is -0.1 ft/yr, and its standard deviation is 41.5 ft. Martin County’s rate is -1.9 ft/yr, with a standard deviation of 85.4 ft. Palm Beach County records 0.6 ft/yr and 43.3 ft. Broward County records 0.7 ft/yr and 45.9 ft.
The contrast between St. Lucie and Martin is notable within this supplied county set: both rates are negative, but Martin’s rate is more negative and its standard deviation is larger. Palm Beach and Broward both have positive rates close to the statewide weighted average, although Broward’s listed rate is 0.1 ft/yr higher than Palm Beach’s.
Dade County’s total shoreline change rate is 2.0 ft/yr, with a total shoreline-change standard deviation of 69.1 ft. In the atlas figures provided here, Dade’s rate is higher than the rates listed for Palm Beach and Broward, while its standard deviation is also higher than both.
| Southeast county | Rate | Standard deviation |
|---|---|---|
| St. Lucie | -0.1 ft/yr | 41.5 ft |
| Martin | -1.9 ft/yr | 85.4 ft |
| Palm Beach | 0.6 ft/yr | 43.3 ft |
| Broward | 0.7 ft/yr | 45.9 ft |
| Dade | 2.0 ft/yr | 69.1 ft |
Source: NOAA Florida shoreline-change atlas. The atlas label in the supplied figures is “Dade County.”
The Florida Panhandle
The Panhandle county figures are mostly negative. Escambia County’s total shoreline change rate is -0.5 ft/yr, and its standard deviation is 67.2 ft. The atlas note combines Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties for these figures, so the values should be treated with that geographic qualification rather than as an isolated Escambia-only result.
Okaloosa County’s rate is -0.2 ft/yr, with a standard deviation of 65.2 ft. Walton County reports -0.4 ft/yr and 39.1 ft. Bay County reports -0.2 ft/yr and 63.0 ft. Gulf County has the most negative listed rate in the supplied county set, at -2.4 ft/yr, with a standard deviation of 66.4 ft. Franklin County reports -0.3 ft/yr and 55.6 ft.
The difference between Gulf County’s -2.4 ft/yr and the statewide weighted average of 0.6 ft/yr is 3.0 ft/yr in the direction represented by the reported rates. That comparison is a direct difference between two supplied figures; it is not a new estimate of future shoreline movement.
| Panhandle county | Rate | Standard deviation |
|---|---|---|
| Escambia* | -0.5 ft/yr | 67.2 ft |
| Okaloosa | -0.2 ft/yr | 65.2 ft |
| Walton | -0.4 ft/yr | 39.1 ft |
| Bay | -0.2 ft/yr | 63.0 ft |
| Gulf | -2.4 ft/yr | 66.4 ft |
| Franklin | -0.3 ft/yr | 55.6 ft |
*The atlas note combines Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties. Source: NOAA Florida shoreline-change atlas.
West-central Florida
On Florida’s west-central coast, the supplied figures include both positive and negative total shoreline change rates. Pinellas County’s rate is 1.8 ft/yr, and its standard deviation is 127.0 ft. Manatee County’s rate is -0.6 ft/yr, with a standard deviation of 79.9 ft. Sarasota County reports 0.6 ft/yr and 63.7 ft.
Pinellas has a rate above the statewide weighted average and a standard deviation substantially above the statewide weighted average. Manatee’s rate is negative, while Sarasota’s rate matches the statewide weighted average exactly. Their standard deviations differ: Manatee’s is 79.9 ft, compared with 63.7 ft for Sarasota.
These results also show why rate and standard deviation should be kept as separate fields. A county can have a positive rate and a relatively large standard deviation, as shown by Pinellas, or a negative rate with a different level of reported variability, as shown by Manatee.
Southwest Florida
The southwest county figures are positive in the supplied atlas list. Charlotte County’s total shoreline change rate is 0.9 ft/yr, and its standard deviation is 137.0 ft. Lee County reports 0.5 ft/yr and 108.3 ft. Collier County reports 1.3 ft/yr and 84.2 ft.
Charlotte’s rate is 0.3 ft/yr above the statewide weighted average, while Lee’s rate is 0.1 ft/yr below it and Collier’s is 0.7 ft/yr above it. Charlotte also has the largest standard deviation in this three-county group. Lee’s standard deviation is higher than Collier’s, even though Lee’s reported rate is lower.
| Southwest county | Rate | Standard deviation |
|---|---|---|
| Charlotte | 0.9 ft/yr | 137.0 ft |
| Lee | 0.5 ft/yr | 108.3 ft |
| Collier | 1.3 ft/yr | 84.2 ft |
Source: NOAA Florida shoreline-change atlas.
How to read the county figures
The rate is expressed in feet per year, while the standard deviation is expressed in feet. They are not interchangeable measurements. The rate describes the reported direction and magnitude of total shoreline change for a county in the atlas figures. The standard deviation describes the spread associated with that reported county result. It should not be read as an additional yearly erosion rate.
Geography matters throughout the comparison. The figures are county-level totals, not measurements for every shoreline segment within a county. Escambia’s entry carries an explicit atlas note that Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties were combined. The supplied list also uses “Dade County,” and that label is retained here.
The results are best used as a comparative reference: Duval is listed at 3.6 ft/yr, Nassau at 2.0 ft/yr, and Gulf at -2.4 ft/yr; Florida’s weighted average is 0.6 ft/yr. Standard deviations likewise vary from 26.3 ft in Flagler County to 146.0 ft in Duval County. Those ranges show that statewide summaries should be paired with the relevant county figure whenever a question concerns a specific Florida coast.
All quantified results in this article are attributed to the NOAA Florida shoreline-change atlas. The supplied atlas figures do not establish a forecast, a property-level condition, or a new independently verified measurement beyond the source labels and values reported above.